Farleigh Dickinson (1/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40
Chris Christie (R): 33
Undecided: 26Jon Corzine (D-inc): 46
Steve Lonegan (R): 28
Undecided: 26Jon Corzine (D-inc): 43
Rick Merkt (R): 23
Undecided: 33(MoE: ±3.5%)
Chris Christie is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey who just filed papers to run. He’s been touted for a while, and from the looks of at least this poll, he could make it a serious contest. And with Obama about to take office, Christie will be replaced (zomg! Obama’s politicizing the DOJ!), so he’ll be able to devote his full attention to this race.
Lonegan is the hyper-conservative former mayor of Bogota, a north Jersey “borough” with a population roughly the size of modern-day Wasilla, Alaska. He also took a stab at this race four years ago, coming in fourth in the seven-person primary won by Doug Forrester. Merkt, meanwhile, is a state Assemblyman who represents a district that’s also in northern New Jersey. Both declared in 2008.
I’d be pretty surprised if Christie didn’t win the primary. Jersey Republicans haven’t won a single statewide race since 1997, but ever since wingnut Brett Schundler’s disastrous run for governor in 2001, they’ve typically been able to put forth their least-sucky candidates. And right now, Christie is in the driver’s seat for the primary:
Christie: 32
Lonegan: 15
Merkt: 5
Undecided: 47
The self-funder Corzine will have no shortage of cash, but his favorables are under water at 42-44 (his job approval is a bit better, 46-40). With a wretched economic climate as backdrop, he’ll likely have a titanic struggle on his hands if Christie can prove himself at all competent as a campaigner. The scary thing is that Christie only has 44% name rec in the poll. That’s a lot of room to grow. Corzine should be very concerned.
(Hat-tip: Political Wire)
the state where Christie Whitman barely won re-election.
If I were Corzine, I’d get on the air early to define Christie and, um, stay on the air. . . He can probably afford it.
Jon Corzine has never been popular in my state, mostly because he is not terribly likeable. Still, Christie has little name recognition statewide, and that is a big problem for a state with no centralized media.
Christie could conceivably win if he raised upwards of $20 million, but faced with Corzine spending whatever it takes, the Republican is going to have a hard time. Also, while Christie looks great on paper, I am not sure that his record is going to translate politically. He has never held any office above a county freeholder. And with all due respect, he is really overweight and I am not sure he will be able to adjust to a statewide campaign.
Corzine can be beaten. He will never be liked in New Jersey, but even a decent GOP candidate like Christie is going to need a mint of cash to get over the top.
waste millions of dollars losing to Corzine
always happen with regards to New Jersey? An early poll shows some weakness and the Democrat wins by a decent margin regardless.
Corzine is unpopular. Not just the typical “I hate the politicians” unpopular, but really unpopular. It’s a bad time to be governor – the money is dried up, and New Jersey had for even the best of times relied on odd financial gimmicks to balance the budget.
Corzine tried to push through a plan to drastically raise tolls on the state’s three toll roads to cover the budget crisis. Didn’t sell at all – provoked a healthy amount of protest. Now, he has been forced to cut the budget dramatically. It backfires, however, in that the local governments have to cover their expenses increasingly by property taxes.
That all said, none of the Republican contenders have real name recognition. Even Chris Christie isn’t known by a large percentage of the population, despite some high-profile indictments.
New Jersey is a really difficult state to gain traction. We have no significant in-state media. To go on the highest-coverage media, you have to go on New York or Philadelphia – high coverage, but VERY expensive.
Corzine, of course, has two big advantages. He’s an incumbent, with money reserved, and he’s rich. He largely self-financed his two prior races (Senate and Governor), and can use he cash again. None of the Republican possibilities can match the cash.
BTW, Chris Christie may right now have the repuation as non-partisan, but he was a Republican office-holder before his term as US Attorney.
A seven point lead is enormous for Democrats in New Jersey. People hate all policians, but remember they tend to swing for the most part to Democrats. 40-33 is a great place to be against the strongest possible Republican candidate.
But the Dems always seem to win. Look at Lautenberg. Corzine didn’t poll great numbers last time either. It’s too bad he can’t be primaried, given all his money, because he hasn’t been a great governor. But I’d still make him the clear favorite in the race.
Corzine is Jimmy Carter — hated by the regular Democrats. Lonegan’s going to win the primary because he’s a conservative.
Christie’s problem is that he is pro-abortion and pro-gun control.b He stands for nothing and his kickoff was a bomb.
And Lonegan’s got over a million dollars raised. Christie has nothing and the people he’s counting on: Wall Street, out-of-power ex-political machines and pro-abortion wing of the party can’t produce much these days. He’s going to have a tough time raising money?
Steve Lonegan’s record can’t be attacked. With New Jersey’s economy in the toilet, who will care about Corzine ads on abortion and guns?
New Jersey Democratic incumbents always underpoll their actual performance.
I’m predicting.
The reason Democrats underpoll here is because Democrats usually come home in the end. While that may happen to Corzine, i’m not so sure.
A lot of New Jersey Democrats hate him, which could not be said of Kerry, Menendez or Obama, and they’re intereted in Christie. The way Corzine wins is increasing his popularity and/or destroying Christie’s pending popularity.
I think it’s almost certain we’ll win the Lt. Governorship, but lose the Governorship.